UBUNGQINA OBUNGQINAYO BOKUTHI I-COVID-19 LUSIFO NGEXESHA- KWAYE SIDINGA “UBUNGQINA BOMOYA”

Uphononongo olutsha olukhokelwa yiBarcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), iziko elixhaswa yi “la Caixa” Foundation, libonelela ngobungqina obunamandla bokuba i-COVID-19 lusulelo lwamaxesha onyaka olunxulunyaniswa nobushushu obuphantsi kunye nokufuma, kufana nomkhuhlane wonyaka.Iziphumo, ezipapashwe kwi-Nature Computational Science, zikwaxhasa igalelo elikhulu losasazo lwe-SARS-CoV-2 emoyeni kunye nesidingo sokutshintshela kumanyathelo akhuthaza "ucoceko lomoya."

isitofu sokugonya
isitofu sokugonya
Umbuzo ophambili malunga ne-SARS-CoV-2 kukuba ingaba iziphatha, okanye izakuziphatha, njengentsholongwane yexesha elithile njengomkhuhlane, okanye iya kusasazwa ngokulinganayo ngalo naliphi na ixesha lonyaka.Uphononongo lokuqala lwethiyori oluyimodeli lucebise ukuba imozulu ibingengomqhubi wosulelo lwe-COVID-19, ngokunikwa inani eliphezulu labantu abachaphazelekileyo abangakhuselekanga kule ntsholongwane.Nangona kunjalo, olunye uqwalaselo lucebise ukuba usasazo lokuqala lwe-COVID-19 eTshayina lwenzeka kumgama ophakathi kwama-30 nama-50.oN, kunye namanqanaba okufuma aphantsi kunye namaqondo obushushu aphantsi (phakathi kwe-5okunye ne11oC).
"Umbuzo wokuba ingaba i-COVID-19 sisifo sokwenyani sonyaka uye usiba sembindini, kunye neziphumo zokumisela amanyathelo ongenelelo asebenzayo," ucacisa uXavier Rodó, umlawuli wenkqubo yeMozulu kunye neMpilo e-ISGlobal kunye nomnxibelelanisi wophononongo.Ukuphendula lo mbuzo, uRodó kunye neqela lakhe baqale bahlalutya umanyano lobushushu kunye nokufuma kwisigaba sokuqala se-SARS-CoV-2 esasasazeka kumazwe ali-162 kumazwekazi amahlanu, ngaphambi kokuba kwenziwe utshintsho kwindlela yokuziphatha kwabantu kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yezempilo yoluntu.Iziphumo zibonisa ubudlelwane obubi phakathi kwezinga losulelo (R0) kunye nobushushu kunye nokufuma kwinqanaba lehlabathi: amazinga aphezulu osulelo adityaniswa namaqondo obushushu asezantsi kunye nokufuma.

Iqela emva koko lahlalutya indlela olu nxulumano phakathi kwemozulu kunye nezifo luvela ngayo ngokuhamba kwexesha, kwaye ingaba yayihambelana kwizikali ezahlukeneyo zejografi.Kule nto, basebenzise indlela yokubala ephuhliswe ngokukodwa ukuchonga iipatheni ezifanayo zokwahluka (oko kukuthi isixhobo sokuqaphela ipateni) kwiifestile ezahlukeneyo zexesha.Kwakhona, bafumene umanyano olomeleleyo olungalunganga lwexesha elifutshane kwiifestile phakathi kwesifo (inani lamatyala) kunye nemozulu (iqondo lobushushu kunye nokufuma), kunye neepateni ezingaguqukiyo ngexesha lokuqala, lesibini, kunye nelesithathu lamaza obhubhane kwizikali ezahlukeneyo zendawo: kwihlabathi liphela, amazwe. , ukuhla ukuya kwimimandla nganye ngaphakathi kwamazwe achaphazeleke kakhulu (iLombardy, iThüringen, neCatalonia) kunye nakwinqanaba lesixeko (Barcelona).

Amaza obhubhani wokuqala aye ehla njengoko amaqondo obushushu kunye nokufuma ayenyuka, kwaye iliza lesibini lenyuka njengoko amaqondo obushushu kunye nokufuma kwehla.Noko ke, le pateni yaphulwa ngexesha lasehlotyeni kuwo onke amazwekazi."Oku kunokuchazwa zizinto ezininzi, kubandakanya ukuhlangana kwabantu abancinci, ukhenketho, kunye nomoya womoya, phakathi kwabanye," kuchaza u-Alejandro Fontal, umphandi kwi-ISGlobal kunye nombhali wokuqala wophononongo.

Xa uhlengahlengisa imodeli ukuhlalutya ulungelelwaniso oludlulayo kuzo zonke izikali kumazwe akuMazantsi eHemisphere, apho intsholongwane yafika khona kamva, kwabonwa unxulumano olufanayo olubi.Iziphumo zemozulu zazibonakala kakhulu kumaqondo obushushu aphakathi kwe-12okunye ne18oC kunye namanqanaba okufuma phakathi kwe-4 kunye ne-12 g/m3, nangona ababhali belumkisa ukuba olu luhlu lusabonakalisa, lunikwe iirekhodi ezimfutshane ezikhoyo.

Ekugqibeleni, kusetyenziswa imodeli ye-epidemiological, iqela lophando libonise ukuba ukubandakanya ukushisa kwizinga lokudluliselwa kusebenza ngcono ukuqikelela ukunyuka nokuwa kwamaza ahlukeneyo, ngokukodwa okokuqala kunye nesithathu eYurophu.Lilonke, iziphumo zethu zixhasa umbono we-COVID-19 njengosulelo lwenyani lobushushu obuphantsi lonyaka, olufana nomkhuhlane kunye ne-coronavirus ejikelezayo enobungozi ngakumbi, utshilo uRodó.

Eli xesha lonyaka linokuba negalelo elibalulekileyo ekusasazeni i-SARS-CoV-2, kuba iimeko zokufuma ezisezantsi zibonakalisiwe zinciphisa ubungakanani be-aerosols, kwaye ke ngoko konyusa ukuhanjiswa komoya kweentsholongwane zonyaka ezinjengomkhuhlane.“Olu nxulumano luqinisekisa ugxininiso 'kucoceko lomoya' ngokuphuculwa kokungena komoya wangaphakathi njengoko ii-aerosols zikwazi ukuqhubeka zinqunyanyiswe ixesha elide," utshilo uRodó, kwaye iqaqambisa imfuneko yokubandakanya iiparamitha zemozulu kuvavanyo kunye nokucwangciswa kwamanyathelo olawulo.

Emva kweminyaka engama-20 yophuhliso, iHoltop iphumeze ubizo lweshishini “lokwenza unyango lomoya lube nempilo ngakumbi, lukhululekile kwaye lulondoloze amandla”, kwaye yenze ucwangciso oluzinzileyo lweshishini olugxile kumoya omtsha, umoya womoya kunye nokhuseleko lokusingqongileyo.Kwixesha elizayo, siya kuqhubeka nokubambelela kwizinto ezintsha kunye nomgangatho, kwaye siqhube ngokudibeneyo uphuhliso loshishino.

HOLTOP-HVAC

Ireferensi: "Utyikityo lwemozulu kumaza obhubhane we-COVID-19 kuzo zombini iihemispheres" ngu-Alejandro Fontal, Menno J. Bouma, Adrià San-José, Leonardo López, Mercedes Pascual & Xavier Rodó, 21 Okthobha 2021, iNzululwazi yeKhompyutha yeNdalo.


Ixesha lokuposa: Nov-16-2022

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